Lost Lessons of the 1918 Influenza: The 1920s Working Hypothesis, the Public Health Paradigm, and the Prevention of Deadly Pandemics.

In standard historical accounts, the hyperlethal 1918 flu pandemic was inevitable once a novel influenza virus appeared. However, in the years following the pandemic, it was obvious to distinguished flu experts from around the world that social and environmental conditions interacted with infectious agents and could enhance the virulence of flu germs. On the basis of the timing and geographic pattern of the pandemic, they hypothesized that an "essential cause" of the pandemic's extraordinary lethality was the extreme, prolonged, and industrial-scale overcrowding of US soldiers in World War I, particularly on troopships. This literature synthesis considers research from history, public health, military medicine, veterinary science, molecular genetics, virology, immunology, and epidemiology. Arguments against the hypothesis do not provide disconfirming evidence. Overall, the findings are consistent with an immunologically similar virus varying in virulence in response to war-related conditions. The enhancement-of-virulence hypothesis deserves to be included in the history of the pandemic and the war. These lost lessons of 1918 point to possibilities for blocking the transformation of innocuous infections into deadly disasters and are relevant beyond influenza for diseases like COVID-19. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(10):1454-1464. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306976).

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic Versus COVID-19: A Historical Perspective From an Italian Point of View.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has a major precedent almost exactly a century ago: the world-famous H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, sometimes known to the general public as the Spanish flu. From a history of medicine perspective, it is possible to underline many potential common traits between the two. In this article, hygiene and prophylaxis strategies are analyzed in a review of the most popular Italian general medical journals at the time of Spanish flu, Il Policlinico being the most representative of them. The analysis included 40 original journal articles as well as important references to the most influential coeval national manuals and international journals. The main issues in the context of public hygiene are prophylaxis with quinine and quinine derivatives, vaccinations, face masks, disinfection, and social distancing. We draw a comparison between these and the most recent international World Health Organization and Italian national guidelines on the topic. Sadly, little has changed since those times in terms of most of the prevention techniques, even with technical improvements, showing how shortsighted doctors and physicians can be when dealing with medical history. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10):1815-1823. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306412).

Similarities and differences between HIV and SARS-CoV-2.

In the last 50 years we have experienced two big pandemics, the HIV pandemic and the pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. Both pandemics are caused by RNA viruses and have reached us from animals. These two viruses are different in the transmission mode and in the symptoms they generate. However, they have important similarities: the fear in the population, increase in proinflammatory cytokines that generate intestinal microbiota modifications or NETosis production by polymorphonuclear neutrophils, among others. They have been implicated in the clinical, prognostic and therapeutic attitudes.

SARS-CoV-2: lessons from both the history of medicine and from the biological behavior of other well-known viruses.

SARS-CoV-2 is the etiological agent of the current pandemic worldwide and its associated disease COVID-19. In this review, we have analyzed SARS-CoV-2 characteristics and those ones of other well-known RNA viruses viz. HIV, HCV and Influenza viruses, collecting their historical data, clinical manifestations and pathogenetic mechanisms. The aim of the work is obtaining useful insights and lessons for a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2. These pathogens present a distinct mode of transmission, as SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza viruses are airborne, whereas HIV and HCV are bloodborne. However, these viruses exhibit some potential similar clinical manifestations and pathogenetic mechanisms and their understanding may contribute to establishing preventive measures and new therapies against SARS-CoV-2.

A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part II.

Both the 1918 influenza pandemic and the 2019‒2021 COVID-19 pandemic are among the most disastrous infectious disease emergences of modern times. In addition to similarities in their clinical, pathological, and epidemiological features, the two pandemics, separated by more than a century, were each met with essentially the same, or very similar, public health responses, and elicited research efforts to control them with vaccines, therapeutics, and other medical approaches. Both pandemics had lasting, if at times invisible, psychosocial effects related to loss and hardship. In considering these two deadly pandemics, we ask: what lessons have we learned over the span of a century, and how are we applying those lessons to the challenges of COVID-19?

Hindsight is 2020? Lessons in global health governance one year into the pandemic.

Fourteen months into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, we identify key lessons in the global and national responses to the pandemic. The World Health Organization has played a pivotal technical, normative and coordinating role, but has been constrained by its lack of authority over sovereign member states. Many governments also mistakenly attempted to manage COVID-19 like influenza, resulting in repeated lockdowns, high excess morbidity and mortality, and poor economic recovery. Despite the incredible speed of the development and approval of effective and safe vaccines, the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants means that all countries will have to rely on a globally coordinated public health effort for several years to defeat this pandemic.

Pandemics throughout the centuries.

Pandemics have ravished the globe periodically, often associated with war, at times commencing as fever and rash, beginning in recorded history in the crowded walled city of Athens during the Peloponnesian War as described in great detail by the Athenian historian and military general Thucydides in 430 BCE. As the world now faces the first major pandemic of the 21st century, we focus on the "plague" commencing in Athens in 430 BCE and the 2 pandemics of the more recent century, which killed more than one million, the Spanish flu of 1918 and the Asian flu of 1957. The latter linked with successful vaccine development thanks to the heroic efforts of microbiologist Maurice Hilleman. We now look back and then forward to the viral infection coronavirus disease 2019 now devastating the world.

Dating first cases of COVID-19.

Questions persist as to the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred prior to the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. Here we provide novel methods to date the origin of COVID-19 cases. We show that six countries had exceptionally early cases, unlikely to represent part of their main case series. The model suggests a likely timing of the first case of COVID-19 in China as November 17 (95% CI October 4). Origination dates are discussed for the first five countries outside China and each continent. Results infer that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in early October to mid-November, and by January, had spread globally. This suggests an earlier and more rapid timeline of spread. Our study provides new approaches for estimating dates of the arrival of infectious diseases based on small samples that can be applied to many epidemiological situations.